Interest Rate Forecast 2026: What Welford Capital Expects from the MPC

Interest Rate Forecast 2026: What Welford Capital Expects from the MPC

Market Commentary by David Wilson, Fixed Income Adviser at Welford Capital

The February 2026 Bank of England meeting has left the base rate at 3.75%, but the “hawkish hold” hasn’t deterred the analysts at Welford Capital. David Wilson, Fixed Income Adviser, believes that the narrative for the remainder of 2026 will be defined by two specific cuts—likely in March and June.

“The labor market is beginning to show the cracks the Bank has been looking for,” notes David Wilson. At Welford Capital, our internal modeling suggests that inflation will drift toward the 2.5% mark by the end of the year. This gives the MPC the cover it needs to move the base rate toward a “neutral” 3.25%.

For the London investment community, David Wilson and the team at Welford Capital are highlighting the importance of “locking in” current fixed rates now. If the Welford Capital forecast holds true, the 4%+ fixed-rate bonds currently available in February will be a distant memory by the time the Autumn Statement is delivered. David Wilson remains one of the most vocal proponents of acting before the “yield curve steepening” accelerates.